INDIA SET TO TRANSITION TO UPPER MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY BY 2030: SBI RESEARCH

New Delhi, Jan 19, 2026 : India is set to reach $4,000 per capita income by 2030, enabling it to transition to an upper middle-income country and join China and Indonesia in the current classification, an SBI Research report said on Monday.

India took 60 years since Independence to reach a $1 trillion economy and achieved $2 trillion in another seven years, in 2014.

The country reached $3 trillion in another seven years in 2021 and $4 trillion in another four years, in 2025.

“India is likely to achieve $5 trillion in another two years. India reached $1,000 per capita income in 62 years since Independence, in 2009. It achieved $2,000 per capita income in another 10 years, in 2019, and $3,000 per capita income in another seven years, in 2026,” said Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, State Bank of India.

The growth journey in the last decade shows that India’s percentile rank in the cross-country distribution of average real GDP growth has increased from the 92nd percentile over a 25-year horizon to the 95th percentile, implying a rightward shift in its relative position that places India deeper into the upper tail of the global growth distribution.

“If we consider the current per capita GNI (gross national income) threshold for a high-income country of $13,936 to be reached by 2047, as per the Viksit Bharat vision, India’s per capita GNI has to grow at a CAGR of 7.5 per cent. This seems achievable, as India’s per capita GNI has grown at a CAGR of 8.3 per cent during the last 23 years (2001–2024),” Ghosh explained.

However, the threshold level for a high-income country will also change by then. If the threshold is revised to $18,000, India’s per capita GNI would need to grow at a higher rate, with a CAGR of around 8.9 per cent over the next 23 years, to become a high-income country by 2047.

The report mentioned that assuming an average population growth of 0.6 per cent and an average deflator of around 2 per cent — based on China, Japan, the UK, the US and the Euro area between 1992 and 2024 — this translates into nominal GDP growth in dollar terms of around 11.5 per cent for the next 23 years.

“India should continue its reform agenda so that we can achieve the higher incremental growth required to reach the high-income bracket,” the report said.

Clearly, India can and will transition to an upper middle-income country, which has a threshold per capita GNI of around $4,500.

The growth of nominal GDP in dollar terms required to achieve this is around 11.5 per cent, which is achievable, as such growth averaged around 11 per cent before the pandemic (FY04–FY20) and around 10 per cent during FY04–FY25, it added.