If Assembly Elections Were Held Today, No Party May Secure a Clear Majority: Ex-BJP MDC Padma Tripura’s Assessment
By Our Correspondent
Agartala, September 20, 2026
With the 2028 Tripura Assembly elections still some distance away, a constituency-wise political assessment by former TTAADC MDC and former BJP leader Padma Tripura has triggered a fresh debate over the possible electoral scenario if Assembly elections were held at this moment.
Padma Tripura, who was recently expelled from the BJP after a long association with the party, has assessed all 60 Assembly constituencies and expressed the view that no single party may be able to secure a clear majority. His assessment places 41 constituencies in the column of three parties, while 19 seats have been described as either 50-50 or dependent on the choice and strength of candidates.
The assessment is Padma Tripura’s personal political analysis and should not be treated as a scientific opinion poll or an election survey of tripurainfo.com.
According to Padma Tripura’s assessment, Tipra Motha has been placed ahead in 16 constituencies, CPI(M) in 14 and BJP in 11. This accounts for 41 of the 60 Assembly seats.
The remaining 19 constituencies have been kept open. Ten have been described as 50-50 contests, six as dependent primarily on the candidates fielded by the parties, while three- Dhanpur, Manu and Surma, have been described as both candidate, dependent and 50-50.
Significantly, Congress has not been identified as the clear winner in any of the 60 constituencies in Padma Tripura’s assessment.
Padma Tripura has placed Tipra Motha ahead in Simna, Mandai, Takrjala, Golaghati, Charilam, Ramchandraghat, Asharambari, Krishnapur, Bagmа, Jolaibari, Ampinagar, Karbuk, Raimavalley, Ambassa, Karamchhara and Kanchanpur.
The assessment indicates that he considers the tribal constituencies to be a major area of strength for Tipra Motha.
The assessment also comes against the backdrop of the party’s strong performance in the 2026 TTAADC election, when Tipra Motha won 24 of the 28 seats, while BJP won four.
CPI(M) placed at 14 seats
CPI(M) has been placed ahead in Bamutia, Pratapgarh, Kamalasagar, Boxanagar, Sonamura, Khowai, Belonia, Rishyamukh, Sabroom, Fatikroy, Chandipur, Kailashahar, Bagbassa and Panisagar.
If such an assessment were to materialise, it would represent a substantial increase over the party’s current Assembly strength. However, the assessment is not based on a representative opinion survey and therefore cannot be treated as a statistical projection.
BJP has been placed ahead in Mohanpur, Ramnagar, Town Bordowali, Banamalipur, Suryamaninagar, Radhakishorepur, Kakraban-Salgarh, Kamalpur, Chhamanu, Kurti-Kadamtala and Pecharthal.
This is significantly below BJP’s present Assembly strength. In the 2023 Assembly election, BJP won 32 seats and IPFT one, while Tipra Motha won 13, CPI(M) 11 and Congress three. BJP subsequently won the Boxanagar by-election, taking its Assembly strength to 33.
The most important feature of Padma Tripura’s assessment is the 19 constituencies that he has not conclusively assigned to any party.
The ten constituencies described as 50-50 are Barjala, Majlishpur, Nalchar, Kalyanpur, Teliamura, Matabari, Santirbazar, Amarpur, Pabiacherra and Dharmanagar.
Khayerpur, Agartala, Badharghat, Bishalgarh, Rajnagar and Yubarajnagar have been described as largely dependent on the candidates.
Dhanpur, Manu and Surma have been placed in both categories, meaning that candidate selection as well as the broader political situation could determine their outcome.
Together, these 19 constituencies account for almost one-third of the Assembly and could therefore substantially alter the final electoral arithmetic.
The contrast between the present Assembly and Padma Tripura’s assessment is striking. BJP currently has 33 members, compared with 13 for Tipra Motha, 10 for CPI(M), three for Congress and one for IPFT.
Against this, Padma Tripura’s ‘certain’ calculation puts Tipra Motha at 16, CPI(M) at 14 and BJP at 11, with 19 seats still undecided.
The comparison, however, should not be interpreted as a prediction of gains or losses because the 19 unresolved seats have not been allocated to any party.
Padma Tripura’s assessment has generated widely different reactions on social media. One commenter claimed that Tipra Motha has 16 seats “confirmed” and could win additional constituencies.
Another projected BJP at 40 seats, Tipra Motha at 15 and CPI(M) at five.
A separate commenter claimed that BJP could cross 40 seats on its own, while another argued that CPI(M) could secure a single-party majority if the election were free, fair and peaceful.
Another assessment placed CPI(M) at six to seven seats, Congress at two, Tipra Motha at 14 and BJP at more than 35.
There were also comments claiming that all the 50-50 seats would go to the Left, while another group argued that all the candidate-dependent constituencies would favour BJP.
The sharply contrasting reactions demonstrate that there is currently no uniform public perception about the likely electoral balance in 2028.
The tribal constituencies have also become a central part of the discussion. One commenter claimed that Tipra Motha could win 18 of the ST-reserved constituencies, while BJP might win one and IPFT one.
The 2023 Assembly election produced a markedly different distribution in the 20 ST-reserved constituencies, with Tipra Motha winning 13, BJP six and IPFT one.
The 2026 TTAADC election, however, saw Tipra Motha win 24 of the 28 seats, while BJP secured four.
This has intensified discussion over whether the electoral trends seen in the autonomous district council areas could have an impact on the 2028 Assembly election.
Another notable feature of Padma Tripura’s assessment is the absence of Congress from the list of constituencies where a party has been identified as the likely winner.
Congress won three Assembly seats in 2023.
However, some commenters on the post have suggested that Congress could still win one or two constituencies. The party’s eventual position may depend on candidate selection, organisational strength, opposition vote distribution and any future political understanding with other parties.
Several constituencies placed in the 50-50 or candidate-dependent categories have historically been politically significant.
Majlishpur, for example, was won by BJP in the 2023 Assembly election, with Sushanta Chowdhury emerging victorious.
Dharmanagar has also witnessed a recent electoral development. In the 2026 by-election, BJP won the constituency with 65.13 per cent of the vote, while CPI(M) secured 16.09 per cent and Congress 15.92 per cent.
Such recent electoral results illustrate why past voting patterns alone cannot determine the outcome of the next Assembly election.
A party needs 31 seats for a simple majority in the 60-member Tripura Legislative Assembly.
Padma Tripura’s currently identified figures stand at 16 for Tipra Motha, 14 for CPI(M) and 11 for BJP, with Congress having no constituency classified as a confirmed win and 19 seats remaining open.
Therefore, none of the three major parties reaches the majority mark in his ‘certain’ calculation.
The 19 unresolved constituencies could significantly change the final arithmetic. If a large share of those seats moves towards one party, the overall picture could be completely different.
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