A Looming Equinox: Bihar’s 2025 Electoral Tapestry!!!
Biswanath Bhattacharya
October 31, 2025
The air in Bihar grows heavy with anticipation as winter draws near, each day swelling with the murmurs of an election that promises to redraw the ancient lines of power. Markets buzz, chai stalls hum with half-whispered predictions, and villages bristle with new banners and old loyalties. This is not just another contest; it is an equinox, a moment when the old sun of certainties contends with the shadow of possibilities, casting every road and byway in uncertain light.
At the heart of Bihar’s unfolding political pageant lies its Muslim electorate, a vast river split by the rocks of social change. For the ordinary Muslim voter, memories of past violence and the drumbeat of majoritarian politics stir anxiety, their votes shaped by a cautious longing for stability. Yet among the youth, especially those who have tasted upward mobility, a new current swirls—one that questions traditional allegiances and yearns for opportunities over mere protection. Their aspirations, as fragile and bright as monsoon butterflies, flutter between hope and fear, making their voting patterns unpredictable. While some cling to established parties as a shield against the rising tide of Hindutva, others wonder aloud if change lies elsewhere.
The BJP, meanwhile, strides across the landscape like a monsoon cloud—broad, inescapable, and shape-shifting. Its reach has extended deep into the Backwards and even Yadava communities, fishing for votes in once-hostile waters. The party’s machinery, relentless as the Ganga in spate, surges forward with a mix of welfare promises and cultural messaging. Among upper castes, there is a palpable desperation, a belief that only the BJP can restore the imagined glory of a “Ram Rajya” where order and authority reign. For these elites, the election is no mere contest, but a battle for the very soul of Bihar, a chance to reassert lost dominance.
On the opposition’s front, the Congress resembles an old mango tree in the dry season—roots deep, but leaves withering. Despite Rahul Gandhi’s repeated visits and rousing speeches, the organisational machinery creaks, its workers divided and spirits low. Infighting in both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is like children squabbling over the last ladu at a village wedding; alliances are fraying, and egos clash louder than microphones at a rally. In this chaos, the Congress struggles to find its footing, too often caught between nostalgia and the need for reinvention.
In this charged atmosphere, Tejashwi Yadav’s rallies are more than political events—they become festivals, carnivals of aspiration and anger. Young men and women swarm to his meetings, drawn by the promise of jobs and dignity. Bihar’s demographic uniqueness—its youth bulge, its deep caste currents—makes every constituency a battleground of dreams. For the strategists of both alliances, this is a chessboard where pawns may yet become kings, and the smallest misstep could shift the balance.
Yet beneath the grand speeches and colourful rallies, quieter tremors run deep. The EBCs and Mahadalits, long consigned to the fringes, are stirring restlessly. Women, often the silent backbone of Bihar, step out with newly minted voter cards and a determination forged in the fires of daily struggle. Their choices, shaped by kitchen table economics and social justice, may well tip the scales. The undercurrents are subtle, like the slow seep of groundwater—unseen, but powerful enough to turn the soil fertile or barren.
Lurking in the shadows, the liquor mafia weaves its own silent story. Under the prohibition regime, these networks have grown more brazen, their tentacles reaching into saffron folds, complicating the narrative of moral politics. The influence of money and muscle, as old as the state itself, continues to distort the electoral lens. Here, idealism must often wrestle with the raw realities of patronage and survival.
Amidst all this, Nitish Kumar remains an enigmatic figure—a seasoned captain steering a ship through a midnight storm. His leadership is both anchor and albatross, steadying some within the NDA but exhausting the patience of others. His supporters oscillate between gratitude for his past achievements and anxiety over his future relevance. As margins narrow, every seat becomes a battlefield, and every vote a potential kingmaker.
The role of Mukesh Sahni and the Left, meanwhile, is that of wild cards in a high-stakes game. Sahni, with his deft appeals to Nishad pride, and the Left, with their pockets of ideological fervour, inject fresh unpredictability into the race. Their alliances and betrayals ripple through the electorate, shifting the mood like a sudden change in the wind before a thunderstorm.
Recent analyses from web sources, including polling agencies and national dailies, point to a growing possibility of a hung assembly in 2025. Opinion polls suggest that neither the NDA nor the MGB is likely to achieve a clear majority, with vote shares expected to be split by razor-thin margins. Experts trace this uncertainty to shifting alliances, anti-incumbency, and the rise of smaller parties that are eroding the dominance of traditional power blocs. Many observers foresee a post-election scramble—horse-trading, frantic coalition-building, and perhaps even the spectre of President’s Rule if no consensus emerges. Such a scenario, while fraught with instability, also offers the chance for new alignments and unexpected leaders to emerge.
As the polls draw near, Bihar stands at an uncertain crossroads, the horizon blurred by mist and promise. The 2025 election is less a destination than a journey through thickets of hope and apprehension, where every voter walks with the weight of history and the glimmer of possibility. In this swirling tapestry, old threads unravel and new patterns form, heralding an equinox where night and day, old and new, despair and aspiration meet in uneasy embrace. Amidst the noise and confusion, one truth endures: Bihar’s destiny has never belonged to the powerful alone, but to the millions whose silent choices, like droplets in a monsoon, shape the rivers of tomorrow.
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