Why do the Southern States want to have more children!
Sanjoy Roy
October 23, 2024, 12:29:11
On 20th October 2024, Chandra Babu Naidu, the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh has proposed for a change in the population policy of the country given the problems of aging population in Andhra Pradesh and encouraged people to opt for two or more children. He also revealed that his government is contemplating to bring in a law that would allow only those individuals having two or more children to participate in the local body elections. His government would incentivize the people with more children and also revealed the repeal of earlier law restricting people with two or more children from contesting local body elections. He was speaking on this issue while he was restarting the construction work of new capital in Amaravati. He noted that the younger people are moving to the other parts of country and abroad rendering many districts left with the elderly people alone. Thus the state is facing the shortage of young people. He emphasized that having at least two children is not personal choice but it should be a commitment of every family to serve the society and country while having more than two kids will ensure a stable population. He also mentioned that countries like China, Japan, and many European nations are facing similar issues. Naidu warned that after 2047, there will be more elderly people than young people in Andhra Pradesh as the average age in Andhra Pradesh is likely to go up to 40 in 2047 from 32 in 2023 .The state’s aggressive push to encourage population growth reflects mounting concerns over the long-term implications of declining fertility. Without a sustainable youth population coupled with the ageing workforce, Andhra Pradesh—and indeed much of India—could face severe social and economic challenges in the coming decades. The average population growth rate in Andhra Pradesh has fallen to 1.6% compared to 2.1 % of the population growth rate of India. Thus the deficit and essence of younger population has become paramount. The steep decline in Andhra Pradesh’s fertility rate emulates global trends, with women opting for higher education, delayed marriages, and smaller families. This phenomenon is not sole to India, rather a broader global shift as nations develop economically and socially.
Available information shows that Tamilnadu Chief Minister Mr Stalin has also endorsed and supported the views of Chandra Babu Naidu. It may be mentioned that almost all middle class and high middle class families in the urban and cities have been facing the curses of limiting the size of their families small, particularly those who restricted the number of children in their respective families to one child. Now elderly people are helpless and hapless with their day to day living. Problems of proper day to day care, security, medical treatment, maintenance of house and loneliness have made their lives nightmarish. Happiness, entertainment and peace have withered from their lives rather fear and uncertainties have engrossed their day to day life. On the other hand, there is another sub-text of his statement as delimitation exercise may cause reducing political representation of the southern states in Parliament after 2026. This can be gauged from the recent statement of Tamilnadu Chief Minister while he was addressing a gathering of 31 newlywed couples and hinted at the possible reduction of parliamentary seats of Tamilnadu due to lower population growth after the 2026 delimitation exercise. It may be mentioned that the delimitation of constituencies for the Lok Sabha and State Legislative Assemblies is to be carried out on the basis of the first Census after 2026. The number of seats in the Lok Sabha based on the 1951, 1961 and 1971 Census was fixed at 494, 522 and 543, when the population was 36.1, 43.9 and 54.8 crore respectively. However, it has been frozen as per the 1971 Census in order to encourage population control measures so that States with higher population growth do not end up having higher number of seats. This was done through the 42nd Amendment Act till the year 2000 and was extended by the 84th Amendment Act till 2026. This number will be re-adjusted based on the first Census after 2026. The population explosion that happened in the country during the last five decades has been uneven with some States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan having a greater increase than States like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
At present, two options are being discussed in the public domain with respect to the revised delimitation exercise based on the projected population of various States as of 2026. Firstly if the number of seats is kept at 543 and these are reapportioned among states based on population census of 2026. This would show that UP would get 91, Bihar 50, Rajasthan 31 parliamentary seats, while Karnataka would be reduced to 26, Andra and Telengana jointly would get 34, Tamilnadu 31 showing a steep decline in the number of Parliamentary seats as well as reduced political power at the hands of the southern states where population growth was controlled while more parliamentary seats and political powers would remain with UP, Bihar and Rajasthan etc. On the other hand if the number of parliamentary seats is increased to 848 as per the population projections of 2026, it comes out that UP, Bihar and Rajasthan would get 143, 79 and 50 seats compared to 41 to Karanataka, 20 to Kerala , 49 to Tamilnadu and 54 to the Andra + Telengana showing more political maneuvering capacities to the northern and Hindi belt . So, both these scenarios show that the southern States, the smaller states in the north like Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, as well as the northeastern States are bound to be at a disadvantage when compared to the northern States of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. This goes against the federal principles of our country leading to a feeling of disenchantment in the population of the States that stand to lose in their representation. According to a paper published ahead of the last general election in 2019, if India’s Lok Sabha seats are redistributed across states after the delimitation exercise scheduled to be conducted after 2026, then states in North India may gain more than 32 seats, at the expense of southern states, which may end up with approximately 24 fewer seats.
Thus, it is absolutely preposterous and very unjust to say that states which successfully implemented family planning are penalized and states that were apathetic are being incentivized. Not only do states in the south stand to lose out in terms of the number of seats, but the scheduled delimitation and reallocation of seats may also cause giving more power to parties that would have their strongholds in the North and Hindi belt. The exercise will also affect the division of seats reserved for the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (SC/ST) in each state. Given this social context, the statement of Chandra Babu Naidu seems important and pertinent and the above facts clearly show the statement of the CM is very much a political statement warranting a proper national deliberation regarding many issues like ‘aging population vs relatively smaller population’, consequences of delimitation particularly the modus operandi of devolution of fund and fixing number of parliamentary seats etc. However the comment of the Chandra Babu Naidu has echoed a mixed response in the social media given the high poverty, resource crunch, unemployment, poor quality of life for a substantial number of population, heavy congestion and pollution threats etc. According to some experts ‘rather than having more children, the concern for India should be to boost the economic productivity of its labour force and to ensure that the benefits of the ongoing demographic dividend are cashed fully’. Let us see how government of India and other state governments including the civil society respond to it.
(Tripurainfo)