Where Angels Fear to Tread, Fools Rush In : A Proverbial Perspective on the Indian Election
Biswanath Bhattacharya
May 25, 2024, 07:47:35
The proverb "Where angels fear to tread, fools rush in" is a piece of ancient wisdom that warns against rash or reckless actions in situations that require caution and prudence. It implies that only the ignorant or foolish would venture into dangerous or uncertain territory, while the wise or prudent would avoid it. The origin of this proverb can be traced back to the Roman poet Horace, who wrote in his Epistles: "Sapientis est timere, ubi nulla formido est, / Insipientis, ubi non est metus, incedere" (It is part of a wise man to fear where there is no danger, / And of a fool to rush in where there is no fear).
This proverb has been a guiding light for various writers and thinkers throughout history, including Alexander Pope, who immortalized it in his 1711 poem An Essay on Criticism: 'For fools rush in where angels fear to tread'. Its application extends to diverse contexts such as politics, war, religion, and love. Let us delve into how this proverb is a profound and pertinent commentary on the ongoing Indian election. The election, a complex and unpredictable phenomenon, is a perfect example of a situation where angels fear to tread, and yet, fools rush in.
The Indian election, the world's largest democratic exercise, is a labyrinth of complexity and unpredictability. It encompasses a multitude of factors, from regional, caste, religious, and ideological preferences of the voters to the performance and popularity of the incumbent and opposition parties and leaders. The role of the media and social media, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the vaccination drive, all add layers of intricacy. It's no wonder that different psephologists have different views and forecasts about the election results, each based on their unique methods, models, data, and assumptions.
Some eminent psephologists closely following and analyzing the election are Prashant Kishore, Yogendra Yadav, and Smita. Prashant Kishore, or PK, is a political strategist and consultant who has worked with various parties and leaders, such as Narendra Modi, Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee, and Arvind Kejriwal. PK is of the view that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), will improve its lot in the election and will cross the majority mark of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the parliament. He bases his prediction on the popularity and charisma of Modi, the organizational strength and resources of the BJP, the weak and divided opposition, and the pro-incumbency factor in many states.
Yogendra Yadav, or YY, is a political scientist and activist. He was formerly a member of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government's National Advisory Council. He is also a co-founder of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and Lokniti, a research program on comparative democracy. YY thinks the NDA will fall short of the majority mark and get around 268 seats in the Lok Sabha. He bases his prediction on the anti-incumbency factor in many states, the dissatisfaction and anger of the farmers, the youth, and the minorities, the erosion of the BJP's support base in some regions, and the emergence of some regional and alternative forces.
Smita is a local psephologist conducting surveys and polls in various constituencies and states. She is not affiliated with any party or organisation and claims to be an independent and objective observer of the electoral trends and dynamics. She believes the NDA will not cross the 250 mark and will get around 247 seats in the Lok Sabha. She bases her prediction on the ground realities and the mood of the voters, the impact of the COVID-19 crisis and the economic slowdown, the lack of trust and credibility of the BJP and its allies, and the resilience and resistance of the opposition parties and leaders.
How does the proverb "Where angels fear to tread, fools rush in" relate to the ongoing election in India and the views of the psephologists? One way to interpret the proverb is to see it as cautionary advice to the voters, who are the ultimate decision-makers in a democracy. The proverb suggests that the voters should be careful in choosing their representatives and not be swayed by the rhetoric, propaganda, or promises of the parties and leaders, who may have ulterior motives or hidden agendas. The proverb also implies that the voters should be aware of the consequences and implications of their choices and not be reckless or impulsive in casting their votes. In this sense, the proverb urges the voters to be responsible and rational citizens who exercise their franchise with wisdom and discernment.
Another way to interpret the proverb is to see it reflects the psychologists' attitudes and approaches to the election. The proverb suggests that the psephologists who are confident about their predictions and claim to have the final word on the election outcome are the fools who rush in where angels fear to tread. The proverb implies that the psychologists who are humble and cautious about their forecasts and acknowledge the limitations and uncertainties of their methods, models, and data are the angels who fear to tread where fools rush in. In this sense, the proverb challenges psephologists to be modest and realistic in their analysis and not arrogant or dogmatic in their claims.
The proverb is a piece of ancient wisdom with contemporary relevance and significance for the ongoing election in India. It can be applied to the voters and the psephologists, who are the key actors and observers of the electoral process. The proverb can serve as a guide and a critique for both the voters and the psephologists, who must deal with the election's complexity and unpredictability. The proverb can also inspire and provoke both the voters and the psephologists to be more careful and prudent, or humbler and more cautious, in their actions and opinions. The proverb, in short, can be a source of insight and wisdom for Indian democracy.
We, the laymen, are keeping our fingers crossed.
IMHO, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the ruling coalition of India, will not get even 300 seats out of 543 in the 2024 Indian general election. I also state that the NDA may stumble to 250-plus minus ten per cent, which implies a range of 225 to 275 seats. I am a novice, though; I bit the dust in the Tripura Election, and I could not fathom that Tipra Motha has a secret alliance with the BJP.
(Tripurainfo)