Political scenario of Maharashtra: A Labyrinth!

Sanjoy Roy

November 29, 2024   

Election to Maharashtra State Assembly would be held on November 20 for 288 seats. The election in Maharashtra is considered as bipolar between the ruling alliance “Mahayuti” and the opposition alliance “Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)”. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is currently in alliance with Ajit Pawar-led NCP and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena under the ruling Mahayuti banner. Shiv Sena (UBT), the NCP (Sharad Pawar) and Congress are part of the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance. Despite the alliances being pretty older, none of the partners of respective alliances is happy with the deal on the sharing or distribution of   seats among themselves with the prevalence of some rebel candidates, proxy candidates and friendly fights in the fray etc. With a view to getting a ticket for contesting the assembly election by any means, many leaders across parties are found to have switched their loyalties immersing the principles, values, ideologies and their long-standing association with the respective parties. Mere contesting and winning the election is found as cardinal objective for a section of leaders surprising political parties and common supporters etc. The political experts call this as a Maha-mess. The present article narrates about the present political scenario of Maharashtra with a thrust on the factors likely to determine the fate of political parties in the fray with the reasons based on reports available from various all India newspapers and electronic media etc.

 

The upcoming elections in Maharashtra are very important from the present Indian political context. Victory of the MVA is likely to prove an authority on the continuity of pivotal role exerted by opposition alliance called INDIA during the parliamentary elections held in May-June 2024 while a win for ‘Mahayuti’ alliance is likely to help PM Modi consolidate his hold at the Centre after a surprising victory in Haryana that restored the confidence of BJP to a great extent, but a defeat could throw their third term into some kinds of uncertainty. It may be mentioned that Maharashtra is not the second largest state in terms of number of parliamentary seats after Uttar Pradesh but it is also the state with the largest economy in the country, called as commercial or financial capital of India contributing about 13% of GDP.  The state is divided into five regions with different features found in different regions and alike five different states. Thus no single political trend exists nor can any single feature or issue be replicated and made applicable throughout the state. The five regions are (1) Konkan including Mumbai region (2) Western Maharashtra, the stronghold of the Sharad Pawar family (3) Khandesh  or Norhtern Maharashtra  called as the onion belt where crops and agricultural prices matter  most (4) Marathwada (erst while Nijam states) now the hot bed of Maratha politics led by Manoj Jarange Patil (5) Vidarbha region  where congress was traditionally strong  but from 2014 the BJP came stronger in this region except in 2024 parliamentary elections.

 

The upcoming polls are the first assembly elections in the state after the split of two important parties of Maharashtra.  There are seven key faces to watch out in the election. They include BJP’s Devendra Fadavis, Shiv Sena’s (UBT) Uddhav Thackeray, Eknath Shinde, Shiv Sena Shinde faction Chief (SHS),  Nana Patole of Congress and Raj Thakarey, Chief of Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), Ajit Power of NCP (AP) and Sharad Pawar ( NCP,SP). Of these, Sharad Pawar aged 84, referred to as Machiavelli of Maharashtra politics is  considered as the tallest political leader in Maharashtra and  called as the architect behind Shiv Sena’s decision to break its decades-old alliance with the Bhartiya Janata Party  paving  away for ‘Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)’ with two ideologically diverse parties – the Shiv Sena and the Congress – on board. The 2024 election is a status fight for Sharad Pawar because the ‘MVA’ government was overthrown in June 2022 after the split of Shiv Sena. A year later, his nephew Ajit Pawar had disassociated NCP founded by Sharad Pawar and Ajit went out taking away most of the party's MLAs and MPs, leaving the NCP founder in a wobbly situation. Since then, Senior Pawar has been trying hard to keep the MVA congregated. Thus the battle is a question of survival and prestige, mainly to the two respective sections of Shiv Sena and NCP as well.

 

Since the election was declared, there was a tug of war and subtle conflicts among the allies of both groups regarding the sharing or bargaining of seats. The process of seat-talk had not been smooth rather it suffered many hiccups leaving many issues still unresolved even after the submission of nominations by the candidates. Although historically Congress, BJP and Shiv- Sena had contested elections separately, the split of two important regional parties coupled with the shift of symbols have rendered the situation a completely dissimilar and ‘topsy and turvy’ during this year with six parties remained divided between two groups causing this election as an acid test for the four break-away factions of erstwhile two regional parties --- NCP and Shiv-Sena. The challenges and competition between the leaders and karjakartas of Shiv Sena( UBT)  vs Shiv Sena ( SS) and NCP (SP) vs  NCP ( AP) are intense . Now this assembly poll is expected to clear the confusion over and make it known which one of Shiv Sena party and NCP party enjoys  bigger support in the economic hub of the country.  Thus the future and existence of these parties would depend on the results of this election while becoming Chief Minister of the state is the bone of contention among all parties. Pressure for extra seat(s) was found sky-scraping in every group  in anticipation of better bargaining power in the event of  any abrupt post-poll scenario / hung assembly  causing  distribution of seats an intricate issue among every group. Finally it was agreed upon that in the ‘Mahayuti’, the BJP would contest from the most number of seats, 152, while in the MVA, the Congress would field the maximum number of candidates — in 104 constituencies. BJP’s ally Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena would be contesting on 78 seats. The third major ‘Mahayuti’ constituent, Deputy CM Ajit Pawar- led NCP managed to get only 52 seats. Meanwhile in the ‘MVA’, Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) will contest on 94 seats and Sharad Pawar led NCP will fight from 87 seats. In the ‘MVA’, both Samajawadi Party and Communist Party of India (Marxist) will fight from two seats each.  A total of 4,140 candidates are left in the fray for 288 seated Maharashtra assemblies after the withdrawal of 2939 nominations while 7,078 valid nomination forms have been received.

 

This is the first state election where the factions of Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party would contest and fight against each other in their traditional strongholds. Sharad Pawar’s party fighting in 87 seats will push to maintain his stronghold on the sugar-rich Western Maharashtra belt. The land of education and sugar barons holds key to 70 of the 288 seats. Political pundits predict a clear advantage to Sharad Pawar party, particularly in western Maharashtra. He has not only chosen the candidates very strategically, but he also has good support among the younger population. In terms of the appeasement of communities as well, he has given tickets to Marathas and Dhangars to get his poll equations right according to a political commentator and senior journalist. Media reports that this time, it is not one election in Maharashtra. The State faces 288 elections in 288 constituencies. It will truly be an unprecedented election and even a nightmare for the pollsters as they are not in a position to predict the outcome. It is apprehended that alike the 1999 elections, several independent candidates may emerge as winners and after the results; they will become the kingmakers, leading to the possibility of horse-trading. Even smaller margins may flip the game in the State. The ‘Mahayuti’ government banks on the success of the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana to garner the votes of women. It may primarily help Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, who has aggressively campaigned for it as his scheme.  BJP has done an outreach towards several smaller communities, particularly reaching out to the OBCs; the Kunbis and the OBCs might lend their support to the BJP. 

 

To a section of political observers, this election in Maharashtra is looked to be an issue-less election. There is not a single issue that will stand out. There are serious issues like agrarian crisis, Maharashtra’s decline in overall industrialization, social tension. But none of them will get reflected in this election. The Congress and the MVA have claimed that they will be able to carry ahead the momentum of the Lok Sabha election results where the ‘MVA’ had received wider support compared to the ‘Mahayuti’. But months after the elections, that impact seems to have weaned away, say experts. While the Congress feels encouraged that it will lead in the Vidarbha region where it is confident of moving ahead of the BJP, the BJP feels it will be able to work its way through the region. Thus both parties are confident. But few commentators observe that had the Maharashtra elections been held with the Haryana elections, things would have been different. But now, some welfare schemes (like Ledki behna Scheme)   are introduced and these are likely to come into play while Manoj Jarange Patil factor might not have a wider impact on the election results.

 

But the threatening fact for all political parties is the presence of rebel candidates, proxy candidates and friendly fights. Due to rebellions and internal squabbles within the Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi ,  Maharashtra Assembly elections have become most-confusing to many election researchers. Despite several nominations are withdrawn, the prevalence of rebels, independent candidates and the presence of smaller parties have propelled the elections as multi-cornered fights. About 50 rebel candidates belonging to the incumbent Mahayuti as well as the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi are in the fray for the Maharashtra Assembly elections, even though both the coalitions mounted all attempts to persuade the rebels to withdraw their nomination against their official faces. Thus in some of the constituencies; the rebels may damage the prospects of the official candidates of their parties or its allies. The key to power will likely be decided by Vidarbha where both the Congress and the BJP are directly pitted against each other. The party which will dominate in the 62 seats in Vidarbha will likely hold the key to Maharashtra’s power equation.

 

All political parties have almost announced their respective election manifesto. The Maha Vikas Aghadi has unveiled its election manifesto for Maharashtra announcing 5 guarantees  like Mahalakshmi scheme pledging a monthly financial aid of Rs 3,000 for women across Maharashtra and free bus ride,  Krushi Samruddhi (Agricultural prosperity) as waiving  farm loans up to Rs 3 lakh for all farmers and incentive of Rs 50000 for the timely repayment of loan , Yuvakanna Shabd (Youth support) as Rs 4,000 for every unemployed youth, Kutumb Rakshan (Family protection) meaning health insurance coverage of Rs 25 lakh for each family  and Samantechi Hami (Commitment to equality) indicating and a socio-economic caste census as well as the abolition the 50% reservation ceiling to ensure adequate representation. On the other hand, the ‘Mahayuti’ has come out with a 10-point guarantee that inter-alias  includes raising monthly assistance for women from Rs 1,500 to Rs 2,100, alongside a plan to recruit 25,000 women into the police force to enhance safety, elevating annual financial assistance from Rs 12,000 to Rs 15,000 for farmers and  20 per cent subsidy on the MSP, ensuring access to food and shelter for every individual in need, increasing the monthly pension from Rs 1,500 to Rs 2,100 for senior citizens,  a pledge to maintain stable prices for essential commodities throughout the state, the creation of 25 lakh jobs, with a monthly tuition aid of Rs 10,000 for 10 lakh students through specialized training programs and increasing the wages to Rs 15000 p.m  for ‘Anganwadi and ASHA’ workers etc. These indicate that there is freebies war in Maharashtra among all political parties to woo the women, youths and farmers, senior citizens etc.

 

Despite the big announcements made by political parties, the scenario is still complicated. In the absence of earlier benchmarks, it makes poll predictions more difficult and risky. Question arises whether the sympathies for Uddhav and Pawar, a wish for the revival of the Congress to counter the BJP, the fear of Dalits about losing reservation, and the Maratha yearning for reservation that gave MVA an edge  to an impressive 30 Lok Sabha seats would be replicated during the upcoming assembly election or not. Political experts are searching for the answers to these questions and factors like cash (guarantees), caste, candidate, religion, farmers’ angst about crop prices, inflation, and multiple local issues like unemployment and Maratha quota etc. But they seem to be divided because Assembly elections are a different ball game than a Parliamentary election. The ruling ‘Mahayuti’  tried to  course-correct and offset its Lok Sabha losses with the introduction of ‘Ladki Bahin Yojana’  giving money in the hands of women and other schemes as well and worked hard to  consolidate of OBC support before the declaration of elections . Politics of Maharashtra today conveys diverse messages. An industrial and financial hub once flourished on political stability is appeared moving towards an increasingly split polity as the large presence of political players in the fray reflects with increasing aspirations and statement by every group for their share of the pie. It also indicates the growing use of fear, government agencies and involvement of large money as tools to bring about political allegiance.

 

A blend of national and regional issues is in limelight as campaigning intensifies for the  election. Personality clashes and sectional interests of leaders and outfits are playing dominant role in the State. Key political players are trying to build new landscape and shape it to their advantage. While BJP and Congress have been concentrating on national issues, the two factions of the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party are emphasizing on regional issues. There is a competition between the ‘Mahayuti’ and ‘MVA’ regarding the introduction of welfare schemes. On the other hand, Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray is very critical about BJP for undermining the interests of Maharashtra particularly in development projects and private investments. The ‘MVA’ is viewed as a Maratha-dominated platform while BJP is considered as accommodating a wider coalition of communities with ‘Mahayuti’ banking on women’s vote. All parties are patronizing Shahu Maharaj, Jyotiba Phule and Babasaheb Ambedkar, iconic figures revered in Maharashtra, but with their individual twists etc. The reality is that polity is split across six major parties in the two opposing coalitions. The campaign has picked momentum but the pollsters lack the gumptions to assess the factors that may determine and change the course of election in Maharashtra with hardly any visible swing reported in favour of a specific alliance across the state and this makes the election analysis of Maharashtra  most interesting and engrossing.

   (Tripurainfo)