INDIA TO RISE TO THE CHALLENGE FOR A MORE SECURE TOMORROW

SANKHA SUBHRA DEVBARMAN

April 25, 2025   

A thorough analysis of the tragic incident at Pahalgam massacre in Kashmir reveals that it serves multiple interconnected strategic objectives for Pakistan's military leadership, which continues to wield disproportionate influence over the country's foreign and security policies. Foremost among these objectives is that the attack functions as a carefully calibrated act of retaliation against India, which Pakistani military officials have repeatedly—and without any credible evidence—accused of fomenting unrest and supporting insurgent movements in Pakistan's restive provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Moreover, the timing and execution of this attack appear deliberately designed to bolster domestic support for Pakistan's military-dominated regime by redirecting public attention away from pressing internal crises—including a crumbling economy and growing political dissent—toward the familiar narrative of confrontation with India, a well-worn tactic that Pakistan's military establishment has frequently deployed during periods of internal political instability.The strategic significance of the attack's timing becomes even more apparent when examined in the context of concurrent international diplomatic developments. The militants chose to strike precisely during two major diplomatic milestones: the high-profile visit of U.S. Vice President JD Vance to New Delhi for strategic talks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's historically significant state visit to Saudi Arabia aimed at strengthening bilateral ties. This calculated synchronization strongly suggests a deliberate attempt by Pakistan's military leadership to hijack international attention, forcefully bringing the Kashmir issue back to center stage in global discourse while simultaneously attempting to undermine India's carefully planned diplomatic initiatives on the world stage.In the weeks leading up to this horrific attack, Pakistan's military leadership had been systematically preparing the ground for escalation through increasingly aggressive and inflammatory rhetoric. Army Chief General Asim Munir and other senior military commanders had been repeatedly invoking the antiquated and discredited "Two-Nation" theory during their public addresses, while openly pledging both material support and moral encouragement to what they euphemistically describe as "freedom fighters"—a thinly veiled reference to the various Pakistan-sponsored terrorist groups that operate with impunity in Indian territory. This incendiary rhetoric was further amplified through Pakistan's extensive state-controlled media apparatus, where government-approved commentators and military-affiliated analysts had been openly predicting and even advocating for a rapid deterioration in cross-border relations. When viewed against this backdrop of escalating tensions and deliberate provocation, the Pahalgam massacre, while undeniably shocking in its sheer brutality and disregard for human life, represents not an isolated incident but rather the predictable and logical culmination of Pakistan's long-standing strategy of waging proxy warfare against India through terrorist means.Pakistan's official response to the attack has followed a familiar pattern of obfuscation and deception that has become characteristic of Islamabad's approach to such incidents. The Pakistani government has predictably and categorically denied any involvement while simultaneously propagating elaborate conspiracy theories that attempt, without any factual basis, to shift blame onto India itself—a tactic that has become standard operating procedure for Pakistan's military establishment. These blanket denials have been accompanied by perfunctory and hollow condemnations of violence that ring particularly insincere given Pakistan's well-documented history of sponsoring and sheltering terrorist organizations, along with disingenuous offers of conditional cooperation in investigations that Islamabad knows full well will never materialize into meaningful action. Beneath this carefully constructed facade of conciliation and cooperation, however, senior Pakistani officials have been issuing barely concealed threats of military retaliation should India choose to respond forcefully to the attack—a transparent attempt at nuclear brinkmanship designed to deter any potential Indian military response.The Indian government now faces a complex and multifaceted set of challenges in formulating an appropriate and effective response that must carefully balance numerous strategic considerations across multiple domains. The consequences of India's chosen course of action will have far-reaching implications that extend well beyond the immediate security dimension, potentially affecting political stability, diplomatic relations, economic growth, and long-term military preparedness. The immediate economic consequences are already becoming painfully evident in Kashmir's devastated tourism industry, which serves as the primary livelihood for hundreds of thousands of families across the region and whose complete collapse would have catastrophic consequences for the local population. On the domestic political front, there are growing concerns that opposition parties might seek to exploit the current crisis for short-term political gain, potentially diverting national attention away from the crucial task of holding Pakistan accountable to instead focus on partisan criticism of the government's security policies—a development that could dangerously undermine national unity at this critical juncture.As India carefully considers its response to these recent terrorist attacks, there is a palpable and growing sense of public confidence that decisive military action can effectively target and dismantle the extensive network of terrorist training camps and operational infrastructure located within Pakistan-occupied territory. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration stands poised to capitalize on this moment of national resolve, leveraging India's growing strategic capabilities to demonstrate its unwavering commitment to protecting national security and safeguarding its citizens. Building upon the operational successes of the 2016 Surgical Strikes and the 2019 Balakot air strikes—both of which demonstrated India's capability to conduct precision counterterrorism operations across the Line of Control—India now has the opportunity to reinforce its deterrence posture and send an unambiguous message to Pakistan that it will no longer tolerate terrorist activities emanating from Pakistani soil. By carefully calibrating its response to achieve what military strategists term "escalation dominance," India can work toward establishing a new strategic normal in the region—one in which its territorial sovereignty is universally respected and its citizens can live without the constant threat of cross-border terrorism.As India charts its course forward, military planners are undoubtedly conducting comprehensive assessments of the nation's capacity to sustain a prolonged multi-domain engagement that could include conventional military operations, precision strikes, economic measures, and diplomatic initiatives. Critical operational considerations include current stockpile levels of precision-guided munitions, the immediate operational readiness of frontline combat units across all three services, and the resilience of India's defense infrastructure against potential Pakistani counterstrikes across various domains. One potential strategy under consideration could involve combining sustained artillery duels along the Line of Control with precisely targeted strikes against militant infrastructure in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir—a calibrated approach that could gradually exhaust Pakistan's already overstretched military resources, particularly given Islamabad's ongoing and resource-intensive counterinsurgency commitments in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Additionally, India could exploit Pakistan's numerous internal vulnerabilities and fault lines, such as the growing unrest in Sindh province over water distribution disputes and the simmering discontent in Balochistan, to apply indirect but significant pressure on Islamabad's military leadership.Beyond conventional military options, India possesses significant non-kinetic leverage that could be strategically deployed to compel Pakistan to abandon its support for terrorism. The potential abrogation of the Indus Waters Treaty, while undoubtedly politically sensitive and diplomatically contentious, represents a powerful economic instrument that could severely impact Pakistan's agriculture-dependent economy by restricting water flows to key agricultural regions. However, such a consequential decision would require careful deliberation regarding potential backlash from international financial institutions and major powers that have significant interests in maintaining regional stability. More targeted economic measures could include expanding existing trade restrictions on critical commodities or imposing comprehensive sanctions on commercial entities operating in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, measures that could gradually constrict Pakistan's already precarious economic position and increase domestic pressure on its military leadership.The Pahalgam atrocity presents India with a clear and potentially transformative opportunity to fundamentally redefine its strategic approach to combating state-sponsored terrorism, harnessing the combined power of military precision, economic leverage, and diplomatic resolve to safeguard its citizens and territorial integrity. Historical ambiguity regarding India's red lines has consistently emboldened Pakistani adventurism over the decades, but India now has the chance to seize the strategic initiative by articulating and enforcing an unambiguous deterrence posture that leaves no room for misinterpretation or miscalculation in Islamabad. As India moves forward in responding to this tragedy, it must draw upon the full strength of its national resolve and strategic capabilities to create a more secure future, recognizing that the long-term benefits of decisive, well-planned, and proportionate retaliation far outweigh the risks associated with hesitation and inaction. The attack represents not just an unspeakable tragedy in terms of innocent lives lost, but also a pivotal moment in India's national security trajectory—one that demands a response that is commensurate with both the immediate provocation and the broader pattern of Pakistani aggression it exemplifies, while simultaneously inspiring the nation to rise to the challenge and forge a path toward lasting security and stability in the region. As India considers its response to recent terrorist attacks, there is a growing sense of public optimism that decisive military action can effectively target and dismantle terrorist camps and infrastructure within Pakistan-occupied territory. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration is poised to seize this moment, leveraging the country's strategic capabilities to demonstrate its unwavering commitment to national security. Building on the successes of the 2016 Surgical Strikes and the 2019 Balakot air strikes, India can reinforce its deterrence posture and send a clear message to Pakistan that it will not tolerate terrorist activities on its soil. By calibrating its response to achieve escalation dominance, India can create a new normal, one in which its sovereignty is respected and its citizens are safe. As India charts its course, military planners may now be evaluating a thorough assessment of the nation's capacity to sustain a multi-domain engagement, paving the way for a robust and effective response that upholds the country's values and interests. Critical considerations include stockpile levels of precision-guided munitions, the operational readiness of frontline combat units, and the resilience of India's defense infrastructure against potential Pakistani counterstrikes. A strategy combining sustained artillery duels along the Line of Control with targeted precision strikes against militant infrastructure in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir could gradually exhaust Pakistan's already overstretched military resources, particularly given Islamabad's ongoing counterinsurgency commitments in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Additionally, India could exploit Pakistan's numerous internal fault lines, such as the growing unrest in Sindh province over water distribution disputes, to apply indirect pressure on Islamabad's military leadership. Beyond kinetic military options, India possesses significant non-kinetic leverage that could be brought to bear. The potential abrogation of the Indus Waters Treaty, while politically and diplomatically contentious, represents a powerful economic weapon that could devastate Pakistan's agriculture-dependent economy. However, such a move would require careful consideration of potential backlash from international financial institutions and major powers invested in regional stability. More targeted economic measures could include expanding trade restrictions on critical commodities or imposing sanctions on commercial entities operating in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, gradually constricting Pakistan's already precarious economic position. The Pahalgam atrocity presents India with an obvious transformative opportunity to redefine its strategic response to state-sponsored terrorism, harnessing the power of clarity and determination to safeguard its citizens. Historical ambiguity in red lines has consistently emboldened Pakistani adventurism, but India can now seize the initiative by articulating and enforcing an unambiguous deterrence posture that eliminates any potential for misinterpretation in Islamabad. As India moves forward, it must harness the strength of its convictions to create a brighter future, recognizing that the long-term benefits of decisive, well-planned retaliation far outweigh the risks associated with hesitation and inaction. The attack represents not just a tragic loss of innocent lives but a pivotal moment in India's security journey—one that demands a response proportionate to both the immediate provocation and the broader pattern of Pakistani aggression it exemplifies, inspiring India to rise to the challenge and forge a more secure tomorrow.

   (Tripurainfo)

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