Resignation of Hasina, Bangladesh returns to primitive stage ?
Biswanath Bhattacharya
August 7, 2024, 08:53:17
On August 05, 2024, Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh's longest-serving prime minister, announced her resignation and fled away from the country amid mass protests and allegations of corruption, nepotism, and human rights violations. The situation also created a security vacuum in the border areas with India, where various militant groups have been active for decades.
The northeastern states of India, comprising Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Tripura, share a 4,096-km-long border with Bangladesh. The region has witnessed several insurgencies and secessionist movements since India's independence in 1947, fueled by ethnic, religious, and linguistic differences. Some of these groups have established bases and received support from across the border, especially during the military rule of General Ziaur Rahman (1975-1981) and the civilian government of his widow, Khaleda Zia (1991-1996, 2001-2006), both leaders of the BNP. The BNP has been accused of having links with Islamist extremists, such as the Jamaat-e-Islami and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, which have also targeted India.
The resignation of Sheikh Hasina, who had maintained a friendly and cooperative relationship with India since 2009, has raised concerns about the stability and security of the region. Allow me to provide a brief overview of the main challenges and risks posed by the spread of terrorism in the NE states of India, as well as some possible policy responses and recommendations.
• Immediate fallout in Tripura
1. We, the Tripurians and, for that matter, Indians, are grateful to this great lady, Sheikh Hasina, for demolishing all the backyards of terrorists in Bangladesh. Now that she has gone, Bangladesh will be the hub of all anti-national and anti-Indian terrorist organizations. And Tripura and, for that matter, all the Northeastern states of India shall bear the brunt of it.
2. During her tenure, Sheikh Hasina adopted a zero-tolerance policy towards terrorism, leading to the dismantling of several militant networks.
The government banned eight militant organizations, including JMB, Shahadat-e-al-Hikma, and Ansar Al Islam.
3. Her tough stance significantly contributed to containing terrorism in the North Eastern States, including Bangladesh.
Future Uncertainty:
• Sheikh Hasina's departure from power will create a vacuum in Bangladesh's political landscape, which could have severe implications for its stability and relations with India. The situation remains fluid, and the international community closely monitors the developments, especially in India.
• Main Challenges and Risks
1. The resurgence of dormant or weakened militant groups, such as the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN), and the All-Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF), National Liberation Forces of Tripura ( NLFT)and others which may exploit the chaos and uncertainty in Bangladesh to revive their activities and demands.
2. The infiltration of Islamist extremists, such as the Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), which have been trying to expand their presence and influence in the region, especially in Assam and West Bengal, where there are large Muslim populations. These groups may seek to recruit, radicalize, and train local youths, as well as carry out attacks on security forces, government officials, and civilians.
3. The spillover of violence and instability from Bangladesh to India, as well as the possibility of cross-border clashes and incidents, which may escalate the tensions and mistrust between the two countries. The border areas are also prone to smuggling, trafficking, and illegal migration, which may pose further challenges to law enforcement and border management.
4. The deterioration of the regional and bilateral cooperation mechanisms, such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), and the India-Bangladesh Joint Working Group on Counterterrorism, which have been instrumental in enhancing the dialogue and coordination on security issues among the relevant stakeholders.
Possible Policy Responses and Recommendations
• The Indian government should closely monitor the developments in Bangladesh and maintain a constructive and balanced engagement with the political actors and civil society groups while respecting the sovereignty and democratic aspirations of the Bangladeshi people. If requested, India should also offer humanitarian and technical assistance to Bangladesh to cope with the crisis and facilitate a peaceful and inclusive transition.
• The Indian government should strengthen security and intelligence cooperation with Bangladesh and other neighboring countries, such as Bhutan, Myanmar, and Nepal, to prevent and counter the threats of terrorism and violent extremism in the region. India should also enhance the capacity and coordination of its security forces, especially the Border Security Force (BSF) and the Assam Rifles, to secure and manage the border areas effectively.
• The Indian government should address the root causes and grievances of the various ethnic and religious communities in the NE states, pursue a comprehensive and inclusive approach to resolving the conflicts, and promote the development and integration of the region. India should also foster a culture of dialogue and tolerance among diverse groups and prevent the spread of hate speech and propaganda by extremist elements.
• The Indian government should revitalize and expand the regional and bilateral cooperation mechanisms, such as the SAARC, the BIMSTEC, and the India-Bangladesh Joint Working Group on Counter-Terrorism and explore new avenues and platforms for collaboration and exchange of best practices on security issues. India should also leverage its role and influence in the international community, such as the United Nations, the Commonwealth, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, to garner support and solidarity for the stability and prosperity of the region.
Bangladesh has plummeted to the unforeseen new and lowest level of anarchy immediately after the departure of Sheikh Hasina. They have pulled down the stature of their own father of the nation. They have equated Sheikh Mujibur Rehman to Saddam Hosein. They looted all the belongings of Sheikh Hasina immediately after her departure. The lives of minorities appear not safe. In a hotel last night, twenty-six people were burned alive, including one foreign national. Bangladesh has returned to the primitive stage.
Shame! Shame!! Shame!!! I find no word to decry it.
But for India it is vital to not view Bangladesh within the frame of our own narcissism. This revolution belongs to the people of Bangladesh, and it is a moment in their often fraught quest to make their own destiny on their own terms.
(Tripurainfo)