Deciphering the2024 Lok Sabha Election Results
Dr VK Bahuguna
June 10, 2024, 05:33:06
The people of the country have yet again third time given a decisive mandate for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to form the next government under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is likely to take oath on 9th June 2024. The Prime Minister Narendra Modi on 4th June after the resultstermed it as a historic win and asserted that it is the second occasion after the late Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s tenure when the incumbent Prime Minister has stormed back to power straight third time. The opposition Congress and its allies bubbling with over-confidence have dubbed the election results as mandate against the Prime Minister. The NDA had secured 293 seats, 21 more than the crucial 272 needed for a simple majority in the Lok Sabha to form the governance. The BJP with 240 seats is the single largest party since 1984 (barring its performance of getting clear majority in 2014 and 2019) to have got this numbers of seats.The BJP falling short of the magical figure of 272 led the speculation bazaar writ large in TV channelsand channels vying with each other on the possible realignments during the flux period of government formation. The speculations started after the Congress initially expressed farfetcheddesireof ending the draught of being out of power. The NDA constituents however, in a meeting at the residence of Prime Minister on 5th June 2024 and on 7th June 2024 while electing him leader of the NDA parliamentary party had junked the possibility of any split in their pre-poll alliance.
In order to assess what went wrong in the exit poll of most of the channels. They could not read the voters mind properly. I however, as a policy analyst have been closely observing the political events in the country. Let us first see the positive side of the results. One thing is very fundamental in democracy that people are supreme and their mood cannot be taken for guaranteed by any political leaders, howsoever, powerful and popular he or she may be. At the same time in high pitch electioneering in the time of Artificial intelligence, social media and digital world the peopleget carried away by the false narratives/half-truth of the politicians and Indian faction ridden society is prone to such divisive narratives at the crucial time specially in the mindboggling summer heat when the elections were held. The foreign powers inimical to India have always been eyeing to fish in trouble water specially the biased western world and their deep state in collaboration with our enemies outside and their inside moles.
If we consider the results of last 40 years polity the achievement of 293 seat by NDA and even 240 by the BJP alone is very encouraging considering that the BJP ruled for 10 years and the results show that apparently no anti-incumbency is evident. The BJP compared to 2019 lost 63 seats and the Congress gained 47 seats. The biggest gain was by the Uttar Pradesh based Samajwadi party from 5 to 37 and with Trinamool’s’ 7 more seats that made all the difference in this election and opened the speculation market. Despite losing 63 seats BJP’s vote share dropped by just 1 % as it made substantial in roads in Orissa where it captured power in assembly election and is set to form its government first time in the state. The BJP made substantial inroads in vote percentage (16.68) in Kerala apart from opening its account from the state as its candidate Mr Gopi won. The party thus is poised to make a dent in state politics as its cadre is growing fast. Similarly, in Tamilnadu BJP’s vote share increased to 11.24% this time and is aiming foroccupying second position in the state with K. Annamalai sure to rise in state politics as AIDMK losing ground after the death of Jayalalitha. The BJP made big gains in South in Telangana by garnering more than 35 % of votes this time. So, the biggest positive for the BJP is that it has gained a central place in all South Indian States and has become a fully pan Indian party and will be a serious threat to Dravidian politics of Tamilnadu. For the opposition the Congress has revived itself in Uttar Pradesh the biggest state with maximum MPs with stunning win of Rahul Gandhi from Raebareli with a thumping margin of 3.90 lakh and drubbing of Smriti Irani from Amethi by an ordinary Congress worker. The Congress also did well in Rajasthan andin Maharashtra and after several years opened its account in Gujarat again. So far so good for both the national parties i.e. BJP and the Congress. Mr Chandra Babu Naidu stormed back to power in Andhra Pradesh with a clean sweep. The Samajwadi party reinvented itself with 37 seats and the JD United/JD (S) and both factions of Shiv Sena as well as Sharad Pawar redeemed themselves.
On the flip side for the BJP which had given a slogan of ‘crossing 400’ but it actually boomeranged on it in Hindi belt. This rhetoric made the BJP voters complacent. On the contrary it incensed the opposition who unitedly chalked out a lethal strategy of false narratives of Changing the constitution and scrapping reservation to win the voters specially the Muslim, and a section of OBC’s and SCs voters and who solidly voted against the BJP in UP, & Maharashtra. One of the reasons for loss of seats in UP for BJP is the glaring mistake/internal strifein UP in ticket distribution and also BJP leaders took people for guaranteed and late rebuttal of false narrative had no impact as the damage had already been done through social media. Then again around 10 crore government employees had been demanding implementation of old pension scheme (OPS) but the government had not paid any heed to their demand. Even a Committee set up under Expenditure Secretary to examine NPS did not submit the report nor the feelings of staff were assuaged. The government must analyse why the OPS had become unsustainable. Canpension after 15 years’ service can become sustainable? A large number of employees voted against the BJP and the party mandarins must take note of it as I have been warning in my articles about it because in Himachal Congress won assembly with the promise of OPS. Social engineering by Samajwadi Party won most of the seats in Ayodhya and adjoining areas. The much-needed reforms like population control will surely take back seats and the BJP need to involve intellectuals in running the government. The opposition specially Congress must behave responsibly and should not antagonise the majority Hindu population if it wants to rise from 100 seats otherwise in next election they will be banished. This mandate is for constructive cooperation between the NDA and opposition block for the progress of the nation.People will be watching both. (The writer is former Director-General of Indian Council of Forestry Research & Education and Chancellor in the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change government of India)
(Tripurainfo)