Winds of Change Blowing in Tripura ?
Dr VK Bahuguna
February 3, 2023, 08:42:05
After the Election Commission announced that the Tripura state assembly elections shall be held on 16th February 2023, the political scenario in the state is witnessing a sea change in the political environment that was never seen before. As the saying goes “Politics makes strange bedfellows” meaning thereby people with nothing in common come together purely electoral gains. The CPM which ruled Tripura for more than 25 years has been always on logger heads with the Congress party and often the state was in the vortex of violence. The ruling CPM party was unseated by BJP in 2017 elections and a new face who never worked in the state Mr Biplab Dev became Chief Minister. I served in Tripura till April 2015 and till I was there BJP had no organizational strength in Tripura but suddenly in 2016 the BJP launched operation “Chalo Paltai” with Mr Amit Shah and Prime Minister Modi riding popular wave after promising several sops and specially to government employees on 7th Pay commission brought the BJP to power as Congress voters as well as leaders en masse joined the BJP “. People were fed up with the CPM’s cadres intransigence on many issues of public interests specially the stagnating economic and infrastructural development and political hara-kiri committed by the party. Mr Manik Sarkar one of the best Chief Minister in the country himself was a man of conviction, honest to the core with his frugal life style piloted the government very efficiently and credited with ending the insurgency in Tripura with government of India’s help and ensured a good amount of infrastructure but could not match the Charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah in 2017. One of the tactical blunders CPM did was sending the most popular tribal leader and Forest and Tribal Welfare Minister Mr Jitendra Chaudhury (who is now leading the CPM party in the hustings) to Lok Sabha. This affected the Tribal psyche because tribal people thought that one of their most capable leader has been shunted out of the state and hence from the future leadership claim for Chief Ministers post. The departure of Mr Jitendra Chaudhury led to the shifting of tribal votes and emergence of tribal party Indigenous People Front of Tripura (IPFT). The IPFT and BJP cornered the majority of tribals votes complemented by the votes of non-tribal Bengali community both jointly formed the government.
However, the euphoria of BJP’s win did not last much though BJP government released the gagged energy of development projects which hindered by the leftist ideology and many urban activities like Hotels and other development funds were brought from Central government and implemented. Whenever I had visited Tripura after two years of BJP coming to power and interacted with local people I was told about the increasing corruption by BJP Ministers and others and incompetency in administration in controlling political violence. Being an admirer of Tripura people I had passed lot of information for better appreciation of things but of no avail and resentment against the maladministration continued among people with several Chief Secretaries and bureaucrats summarily removed or some becoming more powerful. The BJP High Command salvaged the situation by appointing the mild mannered Manik Saha as the Chief Minister who has recovered the ground a bit as some analyst believe but the question is will the traditional CPM votes who were voted last time for a change to BJP will continue to vote for the BJP and what will be the capacity of IPFT to retain Tribal votes.
In the meanwhile, the royal scion of Tripura Royal family Pradyot Manikya Dev Barman after quitting Congress launched a new Tribal party “Tripura Motha” and demanded Greater Tripura aimed at converting the Autonomous Council constituted in Tripura under sixth Schedule of the Constitution into a state. Though it appears to be an impractical idea for state of 10,000 sq km, the party captured 25 of the 28 elected seats in the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) held on 6 April 2021. In this year’s assembly elections Motha appears to be a deciding factor and Mr Pradyot Deb Barman is definitely emerging as a king maker and his role in the this elections cannot be ignored. Today both the BJP and CPM and Congress are trying to placate him. Because of this changed political scenario both CPM and Congress had decided to at least bury their differences and joined hand to defeat the BJP at any cost. The arithmetic is such that CPM feels that they never won a decisive mandate from Agartala seats which always were cornered by the Congress and the Congress feels that at least 30 to 35 percent of the cadre votes of the CPM are intact and both may give a tough fight to BJP. The moot point however, is how the electorate take this coming of CPM and Congress together specially the Bengali intelligentsia.
The CPM has not fielded the former Chief Minister Manik Sarkar this time which has brightened the prospect of state CPM Secretary Jitendra Chaudhury to become the Chief Minister if the party can garner around 25 to 30 seats. The tribal people have been longing for a long time to have a Tribal as Chief Minister. Mr Jitendra Chaudhury is also popular among cross section of Bengali people and is open for investment and professes a liberal attitude and moreover is an able administrator with more than 25 years experience as state Minister and one time Lok Sabha MP. He can efficiently control the bureaucracy. He is also getting big support during his rallies across all sections of people as he has stoutly opposed the demand of Motha for Greater Tripura but agreeing to all their demands otherwise. His statements have fired the imaginations of Bengali youths who are concerned over Motha’s demand. BJP also is not likely to accept Greater Tripura demand and will leave no stone unturned to retain power and the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah should be keenly watched by the political pundits. The Election Commission this time has made all precautions for the fair elections because the state has the reputation of rigging in elections. The election commission’s observers will have to be alert fully so that no untoward events happen that may mar a fair election process. But one thing I can say forcefully that no party can ignore Tripura Motha in the formation of next government. Till then let us watch the ongoing tug of war to capture power in this beautiful border state.
(The writer is former Principal Secretary Government of Tripura)
(Tripurainfo)