By-elections in 4 constituencies of the Assembly: Life and death struggle for all parties

Jayanta Debnath

June 20, 2022, 11:19:32   

There is a lot of speculation in various quarters about the outcome of the forthcoming by-elections for the four assembly seats in the state. And that is normal. Four elections have been held in the state since 2018, Panchayat, Lok Sabha, ADC and lastly a few days ago municipal and Nagar Panchayat polls.  In each and every election since 2018 the ruling BJP has somehow managed to win the election.  Complaints of opposition parties are that in not a single case after 2018 has the election been free and peaceful in the state.

 

Every political party in the opposition also claims that if ordinary people could vote freely in a peaceful environment, the BJP would not have won any election after 2018. Because, they could not fulfill any of their promises made in 2018. In addition, a new culture of terror has been imported across the state in the name of bike forces. In 2018 BJP in their election manifesto did mention more than 299 different categories of promises. Therefore, every opposition political party thinks that the BJP will not be able to win a single seat in the forthcoming by-elections of the four assembly constituencies namely 6 Agartala, 6 Baradowali, 46 Surma and 57 Yubrajnagar respectively if the voters can vote freely in a peaceful environment.

 

The BJP, on the other hand, claims that they fulfilled   almost all of the promises to make Tripura a model state. In many cases, things have worked out beyond promise. Therefore, the BJP has got the benefit of good governance at every election. People have voted in every election with open minds. And they will win the upcoming by-elections in four assembly seats too.

 

The BJP further claims that there is no existence of Congress in the state. All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) is a party of ‘Migrant Leaders’. TMC has no local leader in the state. The BJP's assessment of the CPIM is that they had been in power for 25 years but did nothing for the people of the state. Therefore, the people of the state will not return back the CPIM to power for natural reasons. But in this case, if we look back at the recent poll figures, it can be seen that the BJP has not been able to increase its vote share much in the recent past elections despite widespread rigging except for one or two constituencies. Despite the party being in power in the state, they were not able to win the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) vote. Needless to say, if the same situation continues and the people can exercise their democratic rights properly in the forthcoming by-elections, it will be difficult for the BJP to retain power in the days to come. Because, if we take a closer look at the results of the Assembly elections of 2018, we will see that at that time, the BJP and the IPFT alliance got an average of 50.97 percent of the total valid votes (23 lakh 53 thousand 246). Out of these, BJP alone got 43.59% and IPFT got 7.38%. But since then, the BJP's vote share has plummeted. Due to the untimely demise of MLA Dilip Sarkar in 2019, the margin of victory of BJP candidate in the by-election of Badharghat Assembly constituency in September of that year was reduced from 53.39% to 44.59%. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party got only 49.03% of the votes in the state. In 2022, the average vote in Pur and Nagar Panchayats was 60.04% with allegations of large-scale violence and rigging. Earlier, in the 2021 ADC elections, the BJP IPFT alliance got only 29.34% votes. Tipramatha got 47.63% of the vote.  The Left Front got 13.13% of the vote and Congress got 2.26%.

 

In other words, it is clear from the statistics that the BJP's vote share has been declining in average since 2018. In the just concluded Pur and Nagar Panchayat elections-2022, the BJP party got an average of 60.04% of the votes. However, there are allegations of widespread vote terrorism in this case. In this situation, in the face of the 2023 Assembly polls, the June 23 polls have become a tough challenge for the BJP. In this case, the BJP has got an opportunity on June 23 to disprove the allegation of widespread vote terrorism made by the opposition political parties that the state did not hold democratic elections after 2018.  

 

In 2019, in Tripura, the ruling BJP won 98.9 percent of the seats in the three-tier panchayat elections. Out of a total of 6646 seats under the three-tier panchayat system, the ruling party has won 5652 seats unopposed and the BJP has won 789 of the remaining 994 seats where voting took place. But even in this vote, there was an allegation of widespread rigging. However, it is hoped that there will be no rigging in the upcoming by-elections scheduled on the 23^rd of June as before. Because, the party president and the chief minister of the state himself has said more than once in the recent past that he is not in favor of forcible voting. Of course, it depends on how well the other leaders in the team comply and workers will abide by this statement of the party president and the chief minister of the state. Because, it is doubtful how much the party can win the hearts of the voters just by talking about development and good governance. The people of the state are aware of how much the BJP and the IPFT have done or have been able to do for the overall development of the state since they came to power in 2018. However, the Left Front, led by the CPIM, and the state's another main opposition party Congress, has already been able to build a resistance movement for the people of the state  to restore democracy in the state since 2018. The state’s largest regional political party Tipramatha, which has no political past, but a plan for the future of the indigenous peoples is openly seeking Greater Tipraland by dividing Tripura. In the forthcoming by-elections too, they have kept the slogan of Greater Tipraland alive and fielded candidates for Surma SC reserved assembly seats. The National Congress party has openly supported them. The Congress party will get the answer to this question in the by-elections whether the party supporters support this strategy of the Congress leaders.

 

Overall, the June 23 by-election results pose a major challenge to the ruling and opposition sections of the state in the run-up to the 2023 Assembly polls, as well as to the ruling BJP-IPFT alliance. At the same time, there is an opportunity for the Election Commission to disprove the allegation made by the opposition political parties that the elections in the state have not been free and peaceful for the first time since 2018. (The author is a senior journalist and editor)

 

Voter details in the by-elections-2022 of four assembly constituencies

Name of the Constituency	SC	ST	Minority	General	Total
6 Agartala	10454	2873	4076	34266	51642
8 Baradowali	7074	1368	437	37897	46776
46 Surma	19882	13845	1124	12463	47314
57 Yubrajnagar	9219	2507	5292	26355	43373

Source: Compiled on the basis of voter list provided on the Election Commission's website

Assembly Election-2018: Result at a Glance

Source:- ceotripura.nic.in

 

By-Election-2019, Badharghat Constituency

Party and candidate wise vote statistics

Candidate	Total votes received	Percentage (%)
Mimi Majumder, BJP	20487	44.59%
Rattan Ch Das, Congress	9105	19.81%
Mridul Kanti Sarkar, SUCI	470	1.02%
Bulti Biswas	15211	33.10%
Total Valid Vote	45944
NOTA	667	1.45%

Source:- ceotripura.nic.in

 

Lok Sabha Vote 2019: Net result of two seats in Tripura at a Glance

Source:- ceotripura.nic.in

 

 

Lok Sabha Vote - 2019: 46 Surma Assembly constituency

Party-wise voting figures

Candidate	Total Received Valid Vote	Percentage (%)
Jitendra Chowdhury, CPIM	6030	16.28%
Narendra Ch Debbarma, IPFT	545	1.22%
Pragya Debbarman, Congress	11448	30.91%
Rebati Tripura, BJP	17755	87.95%
Karnadhan Chakma, Amra Bangali	266	0.71%
Amar Debbarma, Independent	81	0.21%
Chittaranjan Debbarma, Independent	76	0.20%
Dipti Halam, Independent	130	0.35%
Binoy Debbarma, Independent	198	0.53%
Subir Kumar Jamatia, Independent	155	0.41%
NOTA	341	0.92%
Total Valid Vote	37025

Source:- ceotripura.nic.in

 

 

Lok Sabha Vote 2019: Results of 56 Yubrajnagar Assembly constituency votes

Candidate	Total Received Valid Vote	Percentage (%)
Jitendra Chowdhury, CPIM	6601	18.92%
Narendra Ch Debbarma, IPFT	169	0.48%
Pragya Debbarman, Congress	6140	17.59%
Rebati Tripura, BJP	21090	60.44%
Karnadhan Chakma, Amra Bangali	178	0.51%
Amar Debbarma, Independent	63	0.18%
Chittaranjan Debbarma, Independent	59	0.16%
Dipti Halam, Independent	76	0.21%
Binoy Debbarma, Independent	136	0.38%
Subir Kumar Jamatia, Independent	110	0.31%
NOTA	277	0.79%
Total Valid Vote	34899

Source:- ceotripura.nic.in

 

Lok Sabha Vote 2019: Results of votes cast in Baradowali Assembly constituency

Candidate	Total Received Valid Vote	Percentage (%)
Pratima Bhowmik, BJP	18406	52.54%
Brishketu Debbarma, IPFT	126	0.35%
Maman Khan, TMC	214	0.61%
Shankar Prasad Dutta, CPIM	6785	19.37%
Subal Bhowmik, Congress	4675	13.34%
Arun Chandra Bhowmik, NUCI	66	0.18%
K. Dhirendra Sing, TPP	38	0.10%
Jayaki Murasing,  API	54	0.15%
Prabir Debnath, Amra Bangali	55	0.15%
Narayan Chandra Dey, Independent	20	0.05%
Pradip Chakraborty, Independent	70	0.19%
Brajalal Debnath, Independent	43	0.12%
Subal Sarkar, Independent	54	0.15%
NOTA	420	1.19%
Total Valid Vote	35026	-

Source:- ceotripura.nic.in

 

Lok Sabha Vote 2019: Results of votes received in Krishnanagar Assembly constituency

Candidate	Total Received Valid Vote	Percentage (%)
Pratima Bhowmik, BJP	18783	45.88%
Brishketu Debbarma, IPFT	270	0.65%
Maman Khan, TMC	342	0.83%
Shankar Prasad Dutta, CPIM	9355	22.85%
Subal Bhowmik, Congress	10955	26.76%
Arun Chandra Bhowmik, NUCI	85	0.20%
K. Dhirendra Sing, TPP	89	0.21%
Jayaki Murasing,  API	168	0.41%
Prabir Debnath, Amra Bangali	91	0.22%
Narayan Chandra Dey, Independent	49	0.11%
Pradip Chakraborty, Independent	107	0.26%
Brajalal Debnath, Independent	92	0.22%
Subal Sarkar, Independent	128	0.31%
NOTA	418	1.02%
Total Valid Vote	40,932	-

Source:- ceotripura.nic.in

 

 

Tripura Pur and Nagar Panchayat Vote - 2022

The results at a glance

 

Total Voters: 4.97 Lakh, Total Seats: 334, Total Candidates: 785, Won uncontested: 112

Party/Alliance	Total Vote Received	Percentage (%)
Left Front Alliance	79,586	19.99%
BJP Alliance	2,38,962	60.04%
Congress	8,364	2.10%
TMC	66,388	16.68%
NOTA	6,983	1.75%
Total Valid Vote	3,97,971	-

 

 

ADC Vote 2021: Results at a Glance

Party/Alliance	Total Vote Received	Percentage (%)
Left Front	96,330	13.13%
Tipra Motha Alliance	3,42,819	46.73%
BJP- IPFT Alliance	2,15,303	29.34%
Congress	16,425	2.24%
NOTA	7,327	0.99%
Total Vote	৭,৩৩,৬২৯	-

 

   (Tripurainfo)